巨石投资 巨石资产 2022-10-12 16:22 发表于广东
十四年前的2008年10月16号，巴菲特在《纽约时报》上发表了一篇经典文章——《Buy American. I AM.》。那时的市场一片恐慌，金融危机的雾霾飘在世界投资者的上空。2008年9月，次贷危机进入高潮，9月15日，雷曼兄弟宣布破产，当天道琼斯指数暴跌504点（4.42%）；9月17日，道琼斯指数再度暴跌了449点（4.06%）；9月29日，保尔森和伯南克援救美国银行的注资计划被美国议会否决。当天道琼斯指数大跌777点（6.98%），创有史以来最大单日点数跌幅；10月2日至10月10日，道琼斯指数7个交易日跌去21.97%；10月15日，道琼斯指数叕暴跌733点（-7.87%），再度刷新单日跌幅记录…就在美股哀鸿遍野、人心惶惶之时，巴菲特站了出来。
10月16日，巴菲特在《纽约时报》上发表了一篇文章，标题简单直接——《Buy American. I AM.》（我正在买入美国)。用自己的亲自发声和实际行动提振市场。随后不久，全球股市开始反弹，美股也在接下来的年头屡创新高。
时至今年，又到了人心惶惶的时候，就不得不重新出来读一读这篇当年的神级文章。
原文：
《Buy American. I AM.》 THE financial world is a mess， both in the United States and abroad。Its problems， moreover， have been leaking into the general economy， and the leaks are now turning into a gusher。In the near term， unemployment will rise， business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary。
So 。。。I‘ve been buying American stocks。This is my personal account I’m talking about， in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds。(This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings， which are all committed to philanthropy。) If prices keep looking attractive， my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities。
Why？
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy， and be greedy when others are fearful。And most certainly， fear is now widespread， gripping even seasoned investors。To be sure， investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions。But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nations many sound companies make no sense。These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups， as they always have。But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5， 10 and 20 years from now。
Let me be clear on one point: I can‘t predict the short-term movements of the stock market。I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now。What is likely， however， is that the market will move higher， perhaps substantially so， well before either sentiment or the economy turns up。So if you wait for the robins， spring will be over。
A little history here: During the Depression， the Dow hit its low， 41， on July 8， 1932。Economic conditions， though， kept deteriorating until Franklin D。Roosevelt took office in March 1933。By that time， the market had already advanced 30 percent。Or think back to the early days of World War II， when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific。The market hit bottom in April 1942， well before Allied fortunes turned。Again， in the early 1980s， the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank。In short， bad news is an investor‘s best friend。It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price。
Over the long term， the stock market news will be good。In the 20th century， the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts；the Depression；a dozen or so recessions and financial panics；oil shocks；a flu epidemic；and the resignation of a disgraced president。Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497。
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain。But some investors did。The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy。
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable。They shouldnt。They have opted for a terrible long-term asset， one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value。Indeed， the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts。
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade， probably by a substantial degree。Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later。In waiting for the comfort of good news， they are ignoring Wayne Gretzkys advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be， not to where it has been。”
I don‘t like to opine on the stock market， and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term。Nevertheless， I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was。” Today my money and my mouth both say equities。
译文：
无论是在美国还是在世界其他地方，金融市场都陷入了混乱。金融危机已经渗透到总体经济中，现在这种渗透变为井喷式爆发。近期，失业率还将上升，商业活动将停滞不前，头条新闻继续是令人害怕的消息。
因此…我开始购买美国股票。我动用的是自己的私人账户，之前该账户除了美国政府的债券外没有任何资产。（之所以没有动用伯克希尔-哈撒韦的资产，是因为该公司的资产将全部投入到慈善事业中。）如果美国证券的价格继续保持吸引力，那么我的非伯克希尔净资产不久将全部是美国证券。
为什么？
因为我奉行一条简单的信条：即他人贪婪时我恐惧，他人恐惧时我贪婪。（Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful）当然，在多数情况下恐惧会蔓延，即使是经验丰富的投资者也无法抗拒这种恐惧感。不过有点是肯定的，投资者应对竞争地位弱的、但杠杆过度的实体或企业保持警惕。但对于美国很多竞争力强的公司，没有必要担心他们的长期前景。这些公司的利润也会时好时坏，但多数大公司在5、10、20年后都将创下新的利润记录。
我要澄清一点：我无法预计股市的短期变动，对于股票1个月或1年内的涨跌情况我不敢妄言。然而有个情况很可能会出现，在市场恢复信心或经济复苏前，股市会上涨而且可能是大涨。因此，如果你等到知更鸟叫时，反弹时机已经错过了。
先学点历史知识：大萧条时期，1932年7月8日道-琼斯指数跌至历史最低点的41点，直到弗兰克林·罗斯福在1933年3月上任前，经济状况依然持续恶化。不过当时股市却涨了30%。再回到第二次世界大战的初期，美军在欧洲和太平洋战场的情况很糟，1942年4月股市再次跌至谷底，这时离盟军扭转战局还很远。再比如，上世纪80年代初，通货膨胀加剧、经济急速下滑，但却是购买股票的最佳时机。总之，坏消息是投资者最好的朋友，你能以很低的代价赌美国的未来。
长期来看，股市将会好转。在20世纪美国经历2次世界大战和其他大规模的战争，经历过衰退、多次的衰退和金融危机；石油危机；流行疾病；和总统因丑闻下台等事件。但道指却从66点涨到了11497点。
也许你会认为，对一个投资者来说在一个出现如此多机会的世纪里还亏钱是不可能的。但有些投资者确实亏了。这些倒霉蛋总是在感觉不错时买入股票，但在市场令他们恐惧时卖出。
今天拥有现金或现金等价物的人可能感觉不错。但他们错了。他们选择了一项可怕的长期资产，一种实际上没有付出任何代价但肯定会贬值的资产。事实上，美国政府实施的救市政策可能会导致通货膨胀，从而加速现金资产的贬值。
未来10年证券的价值几乎肯定会高于现金，而且很可能高出很多。那些坚持持有现金瞄准其他投资领域的投资者，正在等待好消息，但他们忘了Wayne Gretzky（冰球明星）的一句忠告：我总是滑向冰球运动的方向，而不是等冰球到位再追。
我不喜欢对股市进行猜测，我再次强调我对股市的短期行情没有任何了解。尽管如此，我将遵从一家在空荡荡的银行大楼里开业的餐馆的广告指示：“把你嘴巴放到你的钱曾经呆过的地方。”今天我的钱和我的嘴巴都在说股票。
END